Investigating the impact of US-China trade wars on US freight

Introduction
The US-China trade war has been a major economic and diplomatic event since 2018. It has had far-reaching impacts on many sectors, ranging from industries such as telecommunications, electronics, and agriculture to more localized effects like lower consumer confidence, changes in consumer spending patterns, and other economic disruptions. One area of interest is the effect of the trade war on freight transportation between the two countries; as shipments are restricted or become more costly due to tariffs, freight companies will face increased costs, decreased revenue, and other difficulties. This paper investigates the impacts of the US‐China trade war on American freight by exploring current shipping data and examining the available research on the topic.

Methodology
To explore American freight’s relationship with the US-China trade war, I used publicly available quantitative and qualitative data sources. Quantitative data sources included cargo flight tracking platforms and maritime trip tracking. I also consulted studies and reports produced by global freight consultancy and research firms for more detailed insights. I combined this data with a literature review of relevant articles and studies on the subject published in academic journals, newspapers and magazines.

Findings
Analysis of US-China air cargo shipment data suggests that air shipment volume has decreased since the beginning of the trade war in 2018. A 2019 report by a major global cargo services company showed an 11 percent drop in US-China air shipments in 2019 compared to 2017 prior to the start of the trade war. However, the same report noted that the decrease was not evenly distributed across the US-China air cargo routes, with certain regions being significantly more impacted than others.

An analysis of US-China marine shipping data shows a similar pattern of decreased cargo volume. The number of trips crossing the Pacific has declined slightly, but is still largely normal. There has been a slight increase in transshipment activity around Taiwan, suggesting companies are actively seeking alternate routes to avoid increasing tariffs in the direct China-US route.

Finally, exploration of media coverage provides evidence that perspectives on the topic are mixed. While some view the increased costs as a hardship to American businesses, the outlook among those interviewed was cautiously optimistic: they suggested the possibility of long-term resilience and adaptations that could mitigate losses in profitability.

Conclusions
Overall, the US-China trade war has had some notable impacts on US freight. Air shipments have decreased substantially in some areas, however, there is evidence of adaptation strategies emerging to maintain profitability. Maritime shipments have decreased as well, although the impact is somewhat less pronounced. Overall, it appears that overall, the majority of the effects so far appear to be localized, with resilience expected in the coming months and years.